What a Rollercoaster of a Quarter!

What a Rollercoaster of a Quarter!

When it comes to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey, respondents tend to be more bullish than bearish about U.S. stock markets. The survey’s historical averages are: 5 percent bullish 0 percent neutral 5 percent bearish As the...
The Market Cycle and Investing

The Market Cycle and Investing

From January 30th, 2017 client presentation. It looks like we are in the 6th or 7th innings of an economic expansion in the USA. There are places in developed world and emerging markets that are still behind us and where there is still opportunity for equity upside....
Wage Increases are Good and Bad

Wage Increases are Good and Bad

From January 30th, 2017 client presentation. Wages HAVE BEEN increasing on an inflation adjusted basis for some time. A tight labor market should put even more pressure on employers to increase wages faster. When there is no one to hire, if you need an employee, you...
Tax Reform is a Fiscal Stimulus

Tax Reform is a Fiscal Stimulus

From January 30th, 2017 client presentation. Tax reform is a $1.5 Trillion stimulus. But it is selective. And, it will absolutely lead to higher deficits, a higher national debt, and probably a whole lot of political wrangling. Previously: Valuations high, but not as...
Valuations high, but not as bad as they look

Valuations high, but not as bad as they look

From January 30th, 2017 client presentation. Valuation is NOT a very good market timing tool. In other words, the market is not going to turn and head down JUST BECAUSE the P/E ratio is high. And, high valuations are NOT actually as high as they look. Because, in 2018...