The Markets

Really?!

Okay. Okay. If you’ve been trekking through Siberia or Patagonia for about a year, then maybe it surprised you to hear the minutes from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting showed it expects to begin tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) in the coming months.

However, since the Fed has been telling anyone who will listen – telling them over and over and over again – that its intent is to slow the pace at which it buys bonds as the U.S. economy strengthens (and since most people haven’t been exploring the hinterlands where the convenience of modern communications may not be readily available), it’s difficult to understand why that information was so surprising that it pushed stock and bond markets significantly lower.

It might have been easier to understand market declines if they had occurred on Tuesday after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its revised economic outlook. In his speech, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said:

“The recovery of the global economy is progressing at a moderate and uneven pace. World GDP growth, which averaged about 4 percent per year in the decade up to the onset of the global crisis, is expected to reach only 2.7% in 2013, the lowest rate since 2009. While we expect global growth rates to move again towards 4 percent in 2015, the world will continue to be affected by the harsh social legacy of the crisis… The recovery itself is exposed to potential downside risks, including fiscal brinkmanship in the United States, unresolved banking problems in the euro area, the high debt burden in Japan, and financial vulnerabilities in some large emerging-market economies.”

Gurría also said, in the OECD’s long-term view, economic weakness was the result of investment remaining anemic, credit growth remaining subdued, trade growth gaining sluggishly, and growth in emerging economies faltering.

Regardless, the markets’ downward foray was short-lived. On Friday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed above 1800 for the very first time. Other U.S. markets moved higher as well.

Data as of 11/22/13

1-Week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)

0.4%

26.5%

28.1%

14.6%

16.2%

5.6%

10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)

2.8

NA

1.7

2.8

3.3

4.2

Gold (per ounce)

-3.2

-26.4

-28.0

-2.8

8.7

12.3

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

0.5

-11.0

-14.1

-5.1

0.0

-0.1

DJ Equity All REIT TR Index

-2.1

2.8

6.9

11.5

21.3

9.2

Notes: S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

Best regards,

Jonathan K. DeYoe

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added.  This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance.  Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.  The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/21/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=0

http://www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/oecd-global-economic-outlook.htm

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304337404579213362199412366

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/digital-money.asp

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/history.cfm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-digitalcurrency-regulation-bitcoin-idUSBRE94U17X20130531

http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/06/virtual-currency

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/topics/topic_money.html#1E8TcF3HWirjdW91.99

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